🌀 Le système JAYA a été baptisé le 30.03.2007 à 06 UTC, il a atteint le stade de Cyclone tropical intense.
🌀 Le vent moyen en mer (sur 1 min) a vraisemblablement atteint 213 km/h avec des rafales à 264 km/h.
Jaya - Le 01 avril 2007 à 05:31 UTC - Jaya s'est affaibli - Dans le mur de l'oeil, les vents en mer sont estimés à 176 km/h (sur 1 min) avec des rafales à 218 km/h.
Les différents stades atteints par JAYA
Stades atteints
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Date de l'évolution
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---|---|---|
Zone perturbée
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26.03.2007 à 06 UTC
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Perturbation tropicale
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29.03.2007 à 12 UTC
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|
Tempête tropicale modérée
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30.03.2007 à 06 UTC
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Forte tempête tropicale
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30.03.2007 à 18 UTC
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|
Cyclone tropical
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31.03.2007 à 00 UTC
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Cyclone tropical intense
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31.03.2007 à 12 UTC
|
|
Cyclone tropical
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01.04.2007 à 06 UTC
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|
Cyclone tropical intense
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02.04.2007 à 18 UTC
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|
Cyclone tropical
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03.04.2007 à 00 UTC
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|
Dépression sur terre
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03.04.2007 à 07:30 UTC
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|
Zone perturbée
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04.04.2007 à 00 UTC
|
Intensité maximale, selon les agences Météo-France et JTWC
Valeurs maximales atteintes par JAYA, le 31 mars 2007 à 18 UTC
|
|
---|---|
Intensité sur l'échelle de Dvorak (Ci) | 6,0/8,0 |
Intensité sur la classification Australienne | 4/5 |
Pression estimée au centre | 927 mb |
Vent moyen sur 10 mn ( donnée Météo-France ) | 185 Km/h, 100 Kt |
Vent moyen sur 1 mn ( donnée Météo-France ) | 213 Km/h, 115 Kt |
Vent moyen sur 1 mn ( donnée JTWC ) | 222 Km/h, 120 Kt |
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (intensité atteinte la plus probable) | 213 Km/h, 115 Kt |
Rafales | 264 Km/h, 143 Kt |
Influence sur les terres
Conclusion
An area of sheared convection was first spotted on March 25 in the south central Indian Ocean. Four days later, Météo-France initiated warnings on the zone of disturbed weather, which had a partially-exposed low-level centre. At first, only irregular bulletins were issued, but as it organised rapidly it was upgraded to a tropical depression on March 30. Mauritius designated the system a moderate tropical storm at the same time, and named it Jaya, a name contributed by Zimbabwe. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a TCFA, before designating it Tropical Cyclone 22S later that same day. As it continued to organise, M-F upgraded it to a moderate tropical storm. It continued to strengthen, and Jaya was upgraded to a tropical cyclone early on March 31 by M-F. Rapid intensification continued, and Jaya quickly reached intense tropical cyclone status by the afternoon of the 31st, reaching a peak of 100 kt 930 hPa.
However, its small size meant that its structure and intensity easily fluctuated, and on April 1 it weakened slightly, with infrared imagery showing disorganisation as it encountered increased vertical wind shear, Jaya was downgraded to a tropical cyclone. As Jaya neared northeast Madagascar late on April 2, it was re-upgraded to an intense tropical cyclone after convection improved. However, Jaya lost strength just hours later as it was about to make landfall due to dry air and wind shear, and became disorganised.
Jaya made landfall at around 0800 UTC April 3 near Sambava, Madagascar at tropical cyclone intensity, with wind gusts near 180â200 km/h. It re-emerged over water in the Mozambique Channel as a highly-disorganised weak system lacking convection, and the final warning was issued.
On April 5, deep convection consolidated around the centre of Jaya's remnant circulation as the system reorganised, causing the JTWC to issue a new TCFA. Météo-France issued an advisory at 1200 UTC that afternoon on Tropical Disturbance 14R, but noted that vertical wind shear limited potential for significant intensification. Due to its proximity to the Mozambique coast, the system was affected by its terrain, but tracked just off the coast without making landfall. Over the next two days, Jaya came under heavy wind shear, and weakened considerably. However, it made another comeback on April 7, undergoing short-term rapid intensification, prompting Météo-France to issue a new advisory. However, convection became very weak and Jaya's circulation became fully exposed, and Météo-France again stopped advisories.
Reuters reports at least three people dead and many homes destroyed Several plantations were also ruined.
However, its small size meant that its structure and intensity easily fluctuated, and on April 1 it weakened slightly, with infrared imagery showing disorganisation as it encountered increased vertical wind shear, Jaya was downgraded to a tropical cyclone. As Jaya neared northeast Madagascar late on April 2, it was re-upgraded to an intense tropical cyclone after convection improved. However, Jaya lost strength just hours later as it was about to make landfall due to dry air and wind shear, and became disorganised.
Jaya made landfall at around 0800 UTC April 3 near Sambava, Madagascar at tropical cyclone intensity, with wind gusts near 180â200 km/h. It re-emerged over water in the Mozambique Channel as a highly-disorganised weak system lacking convection, and the final warning was issued.
On April 5, deep convection consolidated around the centre of Jaya's remnant circulation as the system reorganised, causing the JTWC to issue a new TCFA. Météo-France issued an advisory at 1200 UTC that afternoon on Tropical Disturbance 14R, but noted that vertical wind shear limited potential for significant intensification. Due to its proximity to the Mozambique coast, the system was affected by its terrain, but tracked just off the coast without making landfall. Over the next two days, Jaya came under heavy wind shear, and weakened considerably. However, it made another comeback on April 7, undergoing short-term rapid intensification, prompting Météo-France to issue a new advisory. However, convection became very weak and Jaya's circulation became fully exposed, and Météo-France again stopped advisories.
Reuters reports at least three people dead and many homes destroyed Several plantations were also ruined.
Source : Absolute Astronomy