Consultation de l'archive MANOU


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Informations générales

MANOU  Cyclone tropical, saison 2002/2003

Le système MANOU a été baptisé le 04.05.2003 à 06 UTC, il a atteint le stade de Cyclone tropical.
Le vent soutenu en mer a atteint 167 km/h avec des rafales atteignant 207 km/h.
Quatre îles ont été touchées par ce système.



Identité du Système

Date de la cyclogénèse
02.05.2003 à 00 UTC
Zone de la cyclogénèse
Centre du bassin (60°/70°E)
Date du baptême
04.05.2003 à 06 UTC
Date de la dissipation
10.05.2003 à 18 UTC
Type de trajectoire
PERPENDICULAIRE
Durée de vie
8 Jours
Durée de vie au stade de Dvorak supérieur à 2,5/8,0
6 Jours
Durée de vie au stade tempête
114 Heures
Durée de vie au stade Cyclonique
30 Heures
Distance parcourue
2568 km
Vitesse moyenne de déplacement
12.2 km/h, 7 Kt
ZONE DE LA CYCLOLYSE
TROPICALE


Les différents stades atteints par MANOU


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Stades atteints Date de l'évolution Mention  
Zone perturbée
02.05.2003 à 00 UTC
11.0°S & 65.7°E L'intensité augmente
Perturbation tropicale
03.05.2003 à 12 UTC
13.5°S & 63.5°E L'intensité augmente
Dépression tropicale
04.05.2003 à 00 UTC
15.3°S & 61.4°E L'intensité augmente
Tempête tropicale modérée
04.05.2003 à 06 UTC
15.3°S & 61.1°E L'intensité augmente
Forte tempête tropicale
08.05.2003 à 00 UTC
18.7°S & 50.0°E L'intensité augmente
Cyclone tropical
08.05.2003 à 06 UTC
19.0°S & 49.9°E L'intensité augmente
Forte tempête tropicale
09.05.2003 à 12 UTC
19.6°S & 49.0°E L'intensité diminue
Tempête tropicale modérée
10.05.2003 à 00 UTC
20.2°S & 49.2°E L'intensité diminue
Dépression tropicale
10.05.2003 à 06 UTC
20.9°S & 48.8°E L'intensité diminue


Valeurs maximales

Valeurs maximales atteintes par MANOU, le 08 mai 2003 à 18 UTC  
Intensité sur l'échelle de Dvorak (nombre Ci) 5,0/8,0
Intensité sur la classification Australienne 3/5
Pression estimée au centre 954 mb
Vent moyen sur 10 mn (donnée Météo-France) 148 Km/h, 80 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (donnée Météo-France) 167 Km/h, 90 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (donnée JTWC) 139 Km/h, 75 Kt
Rafales 207 Km/h, 112 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (intensité atteinte la plus probable) 167 Km/h, 90 Kt


Tableau des impacts sur les îles


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Îles
Distance et intensité correspondante
Date
Alerte
Saint Brandon 50 km au Nord-Nord-Est, au stade de tempête tropicale modérée 04.05.03 à 20 UTC Aucune
Maurice 355 km au NNO, au stade de tempête tropicale modérée (s'intensifiant) 06.05.2003 à 00 UTC Alerte de classe 1
Réunion 350 km au Nord-Ouest, au stade de tempête tropicale modérée (s'intensifiant) 06.05.2003 à 23 UTC Vigilance cyclonique (pendant 47h)
Madagascar Effleure la côte Est, au stade de cyclone tropical (stable) 08.05.03 à 15 UTC Avis de danger imminent
 

Conclusion

La fin de saison a été lourde de conséquence pour les Malgaches. Madagascar, jusque là relativement épargné, puisque n’ayant connu jusqu’au mois d’avril que l’influence très modérée de la tempête tropicale FARI, a une nouvelle fois payé un lourd tribut à l’occasion de l’impact du dernier système dépressionnaire de la saison, le Cyclone Tropical MANOU, qui a durement frappé la côte Est de la Grande Ile, faisant 70 victimes.

Avec MANOU la saison s’est clôturée comme elle avait commencé, par un phénomène exceptionnel, avec pour la seconde année consécutive un cyclone touchant une terre habitée en mai. Le cyclone tropical KESINY avait constitué un événement inédit l’an passé, puisque c’était la première fois depuis le début de l’ère satellitaire qu’un système dépressionnaire affectait, au stade de cyclone tropical, une terre habitée du bassin en mai. Mais MANOU a revêtu un caractère encore plus hors norme. Plus intense que KESINY, il est surtout, des six cyclones tropicaux répertoriés sur le bassin depuis 1967 au mois de mai, celui ayant atteint cette intensité à la latitude la plus élevée jamais observée durant cette période.



Images du système


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Trajectoire de Manou
Source : Trajectoire provenant du site de Australia Severe Weather.
Manou - Le 05 mai 2003 à 10:30 UTC - Manou en configuration bande incurvée, au stade de Tempête Tropicale Modérée, entrain de s'intensifier tout en prenant une direction d'ouest-sud-ouest
Source : Image IR colorisée provenant du site CIMSS
Le 07 mai 2003 à 07 UTC. La tempête tropicale modérée MANOU est en cours d''intensification, elle se dirige vers la côte Est Malgache
Source : Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC
Manou - Cyclone tropical - Le 08 mai 2003 à 10:45 UTC
Source : Image provenant de Jean-Paul HOARAU - jpghoarau@runnet.com
Manou - Le 08 mai 2003 à 19:30 UTC - Manou au stade de Cyclone Tropical, l'œil tangente la côte Est Malgache, à proximité des villes de Andevoranto, Vatomandry et Mahanoro
Source : Image IR colorisée provenant du site CIMSS

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